Amazon’s global ecommerce sales will reach $416.48 billion in 2020, according to our latest estimates, as consumers rely more heavily on ecommerce due to COVID-19. The new figure is about $12 billion more than our pre-pandemic estimates.
Most of Amazon’s sales come from the US, but the pandemic has also fueled growth in Germany, the UK and Japan. Amazon’s US business — which represents about 65% of its sales worldwide — will be up nearly $9 billion compared with our pre-pandemic figure, reaching $269.41 billion in 2020.
The pandemic has also bolstered sales growth in Amazon’s largest international markets. Germany sales this year will rise 9.8%, totaling $34.88 billion (€31.15 billion); the UK will see 15.2% growth, totaling $29.05 billion (£22.76 billion); and Japan’s growth is estimated at 12.3%, totaling $26.47 billion (JPY2.885 trillion).
Much of the pandemic-related growth came from essential items, boosting Amazon’s first-party sales. During the height of the pandemic, Amazon prioritized stocking household staples and medical supplies, which tend to be sold directly from Amazon itself, and had paused shipments from third-party marketplace sellers in nonessential categories. This contributed to the 24.3% year-over-year growth in worldwide first-party sales in Q1 2020, compared with 9.5% growth in Q1 2019. However, we estimate that marketplace sales will still make up 60.1% of Amazon’s worldwide sales this year.
Consumers’ reliance on Amazon for a wider variety of everyday goods may lead to new purchase behaviors in the long term. While groceries, health and personal care goods make up small percentages of Amazon’s overall sales, consumers turning to the retailer for those items may likely continue to do so post-pandemic, boosting Amazon’s hold in those categories. In the US, we expect Amazon food and beverage sales will grow 61.8% this year, while health, personal care and beauty products will grow 45.2%.